5 October Surprises That Completely Changed the Outcome of Presidential Elections
The 2024 presidential election is nearly upon us, and due to how the calendar works, that means it’s October — something that has everyone who has some idea of the history and methods of presidential campaigning a little on edge. They’re basically just waiting for — and doing everything they can to prevent — an “October surprise,” or an unexpected last-minute leak, event or gaffe that can upend the outcome of the election. The term hasn't been around forever, but the practice has.
Here are five October surprises that very well may have swung their elections in the opposite direction…
Alexander Hamilton Lights Up John Adams
Despite the fact that they were both Federalists, Hamilton was a well-documented opponent of Adams. So squabbling and sniping were nothing new between the two. Where Hamilton crossed the line, though, was when he distributed a pamphlet to their own party in October of the 1800 election that was, essentially, a long-form hit piece describing every single way in which Adams was an awful person, which, as spicy documents tend to do, leaked and became available to the general public.
Adams lost the election, but it turned out to be a mutual destruction, because Hamilton’s kneecapping of a fellow Federalist’s campaign made him an irredeemable snake politically.
James Blaine Loses the Catholic Vote
Sometimes you don’t necessarily have to be the one that makes an unwise statement in order to blow your chances at the election. All you have to do is stand by and leave it unchecked. So when candidate James G. Blaine, at an event of Protestant ministers, simply sat by while the speaker disparaged Catholicism, the Democratic National Committee made sure everybody knew about it, tying it to claims of anti-Catholic sentiment they’d been trying to make stick on him for months.
Blaine would lose the presidential election to Grover Cleveland, thanks to him losing New York and its electoral votes by a margin of 0.1 percent — a margin that’s entirely attributable to New York’s Catholic population.
The October Surprise That Gave Us the Name
The original inspiration for the term “October Surprise” is one that’s thick with pointed fingers and lack of legal confirmation. It all centers around American hostages in Iran and the 1980 election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter. Deals to release the hostages were in the works behind the scenes, and Reagan’s camp was reportedly worried that Carter, the incumbent, would be able to get them released right before the election, a lovely feather to wear in your election-day cap.
The accusation then, which isn't confirmed but is also far from impossible, is that Republicans secretly made a deal with Iran in return for Iran not releasing the hostages until after the election. The fact that the hostages were released the day of Reagan's inauguration after defeating Carter certainly doesn’t make it seem untrue. Although it was more of an “October bullet-dodge” than a surprise, given that the term was coined around it, it has to be included.
Iran-Contra Takes Down A Different President
If Iran-Contra all went down as accused, it may have won Reagan the presidency. Years later, somebody else would pay the price, though: George H.W. Bush. The whole affair rankled the American public, and was unfortunately juicy enough that they wouldn’t soon forget it. Bush had been Reagan’s vice president, and had been riding an, at best, fragile claim of ignorance about the whole thing. Unfortunately for him, just before the election, Reagan’s Secretary of Defense, a man named Caspar Weinberger, was indicted for giving false testimony during an investigation of the affair.
It was a double-whammy for H.W., both reminding everybody of his involvement and suggesting that if it happened, it may well have involved the whole administration. He would lose the election, which had previously been fairly close, in a landslide to Bill Clinton.
Like Father, Like Son
George W. Bush had his own October surprise, and a pretty straightforward one at that: the release of a previous arrest for drunk driving in 1976.
There are plenty of candidates that it would have been more shocking of a revelation about, especially since Dubya is basically the poster boy for “president you could have a beer with.” History buffs know that he did, indeed win the 2000 election — sort of. The election turned out so close it took the Supreme Court to decide who actually won, and their decision isn’t without side-eye. Bush lost the popular vote, and given the close margins all around, it’s hard to say that the last-minute arrest record didn’t have any effect.
